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MLB 2008 Predictions Part 4 of 7 - NL East By John Mugatu - Posted on February 25th, 2008 Tagged: mlb • National League East • Predictions • Season Preview I'm feeling saucy today, so I'm posting my 2nd helping of predictions today. Time to move on to the Senior Circuit, also known as the National League, where the pitchers hit and the teams are generally not as good as their American counterparts. Here's my look at the NL East: 1. New York Mets Prediction: 92-70 Key Additions: Johan Santana, Brian Schneider, Ryan Church Key Losses: Tom Glavine, Paul Lo Duca, Shawn Green, Jeff Conine Projected Lineup: SS Reyes, 2B Castillo, CF Beltran, 3B Wright, 1B Delgado, LF Alou, RF Church, C Schneider Projected Rotation & Closer: Santana, Martinez, Maine, Perez, Hernandez & Wagner Analysis: The big winners of the off-season were the Mets, with their absolute steal of Johan Santana for a few prospects, none of which will ever measure up to the great Johan (granted this ‘steal’ will cost them a Scrooge McDuck-type fortune over the next 6 years). This move reminds me of when the Sox obtained Schilling prior to the 2004 season – bring in an ace to supplement an already good staff, thus moving each starter down one notch. Suddenly a crafty Pedro Martinez is your number two (even if the egg & mango aficionado won’t admit that he's el numero dos). John Maine & Oliver Perez are the 3rd and 4th starters respectively and El Duque is the 5th starter. This team missed the playoffs by only one game, and needed a monumental collapse to do so. Johan is the ultimate stopper and will make sure prolonged losing streaks, particularly like their September shutdown, are an impossibility. And let’s not forget the Mets trot out 3 of best hitters in the game in Reyes, Beltran & Wright, so the offense isn't anything worry about, and Billy Wagner is still one of the best closers in the game. The pressure is on the Mets because they've set the bar high, but there’s no reason why they shouldn’t lead the National League in wins. 2. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: 87-75 Key Additions: Geoff Jenkins, Pedro Feliz, Brad Lidge, Eric Brunlett, Chad Durbin Key Losses: Michael Bourn, Aaron Rowand, Rod Barajas Projected Lineup: SS Rollins, CF Victorino, 2B Utley, 1B Howard, LF Burrell, RF Jenkins, 3B Feliz, C Ruiz/Coste Projected Rotation & Closer: Hamels, Myers, Kendrick, Moyer, Eaton & Lidge Analysis: The Phillies look good on paper, as they also have 3 of the best hitters in the game in Rollins, Utley & Howard. The difference for them is they just don’t have the pitching depth that other teams have. Brad Lidge is a nice pickup, but how is he going to fair pitching in that little bandbox the Phillies call home (although he will rarely have to face Pujols now that he’s out of the Central, so he has that going for him, which is nice)? Lidge had his knee scoped today and he’ll miss the next 3 to 6 weeks; there's nothing like a knee injury to a baseball player in late February can derail an entire season, as much as Lidge & Phillies management want to play the company line of "it's not a big deal." This also means that Tom Gordon may have to reprise his role as closer (and all I can say is “uh oh”). Hamels is a stud, but can Myers get back into form as a starter – I mean, what happened last year? He was the ace then struggled so he became the closer? That’s just a bizarre chain of events and it makes you wonder about his intestinal & testicular fortitude. And while the Phillies are a loose bunch (as evidence – the amazing “you’ve been traded to Japan for Kobayashi” prank pulled on Kyle Kendrick by Brett Myers and company), their rotation can’t measure up to the elite in the NL, and if you don't have the pitching, you don't have anything. 3. Atlanta Braves Prediction: 83-79 Key Additions: Tom Glavine, Mark Kotsay Key Losses: Andruw Jones, Edgar Renteria Projected Lineup: 2B Johnson, CF Kotsay, 3B Jones, 1B Teixeira, C McCann, RF Francoeur, LF Diaz, SS Escobar Projected Rotation & Closer: Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, James, Hampton & Soriano Analysis: Cut from the same mold as the Mets & Phillies, just not as good as either. The losses of Jones & Renteria hurt the offense too much (Jones may have terrible last year, but I’ll take him over Mark Kotsay every day of the week and twice on Sunday). If Chipper can stay healthy, they will be okay, because Teixeira should play out of his mind this year (a great season leads to $150M – hmmm, think he might play well this year?) and would provide great protection for Chipper. Smoltz keeps chugging along, but what does Glavine have left? Why didn’t they try to get Maddux back? I like Soriano as the closer, he has nasty stuff, and mid-season the bullpen will get a bump when they get Mike Gonzalez back. So the Braves will be right there, but just don’t have the horses to get over the hump. But they’re the Braves and it’s been 2 whole years since they won the NL East, so you never know. 4. Florida Marlins Prediction: 70-92 Key Additions: Cameron Maybin, Dallas McPherson, Andrew Miller Key Losses: Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Olivo Projected Lineup: SS Ramirez, 2B Uggla, RF Hermida, LF Willingham, 1B Jacobs, CF Maybin, 3B McPherson, C Rabelo/Treanor Projected Rotation & Closer: Olson, Mitre, Miller, Hendrickson, Nolasco & Gregg Analysis: Well, they officially blew it up when they dumped Cabrera & Willis – but got good returns in Maybin and Miller. They’ll be a scrappy team, Hanley Ramirez is very enjoyable to watch, but all in all, they aren’t going to be very good. I’m not sure the team’s payroll exceeds Alex Rodriguez’s salary this year! If the kids grow up fast, they could make some waves. They could be really good in 2010. But it’s 2008. And I just can’t figure out what else to write about this team. Young & Exciting. Young & Terrible. I don’t know. It pisses me off that they’ve won two recent World Series based on this build it up, win for one season and blow it strategy. Although I will tip my hat to their scouting department for making this strategy effective - the fact that they've risen to the top and fallen from grace twice while other similar franchise have been stuck in losing season hell (KC & Pittsburgh, I'm looking at you) is impressive. They should be due for another title and blow up soon. But absolutely not this year. 5. Washington Nationals Prediction: 70-92 Key Additions: Paul Lo Duca, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Nick Johnson (back from injury) Key Losses: Brian Schneider, Ryan Church Projected Lineup: SS Lopez, CF Milledge, 3B Zimmerman, 1B Young, RF Kearns, LF Pena, C Lo Duca, 2B Belliard Projected Rotation & Closer: Hill, Patterson, Bergmann, Lannan, Chico & Cordero Analysis: I get bored writing about insignificant teams like the Nationals. Nice pickup in Milledge, hopefully he can put it together and become the player he has the tools to become. Risky pick-up of Dukes, while talented, he’s a legitimate whack-job. I’d rather be a witness giving testimony on Kaiser Soze than be in close proximity with that psycho. They must trade Nick Johnson or Dmitri Young before the season starts, as neither is built to play the outfield and last I checked you can only play one first baseman (Note to the GM – the Angels badly need a productive bat out of their first baseman and have tons of pitching prospects … do the math). Their pitching isn’t that bad but they need a stud starter and some bullpen help. They should be better than the Marlins, but this team has a way of finishing last every year. The best way to sum it up is that I’d bet a thousand dollars there isn’t one Montréal resident that would say, “Je suis si triste que notre magnifique équipe de base-ball a quitté notre ville. Je les manque très beaucoup." American League 2008 2008 - AL East Predictions 2008 - AL Central Predictions 2008 - AL West Predictions National League 2008 2008 - NL East Predictions 2008 - NL Central Predictions 2008 - NL West Predictions 2008 Playoffs 2008 MLB Playoff Predictions John Mugatu's blog • 5 comments • Read more

I'm feeling saucy today, so I'm posting my 2nd helping of predictions today. Time to move on to the Senior Circuit, also known as the National League, where the pitchers hit and the teams are generally not as good as their American counterparts. Here's my look at the NL East:

1. New York Mets

Prediction: 92-70
Key Additions: Johan Santana, Brian Schneider, Ryan Church
Key Losses: Tom Glavine, Paul Lo Duca, Shawn Green, Jeff Conine
Projected Lineup: SS Reyes, 2B Castillo, CF Beltran, 3B Wright, 1B Delgado, LF Alou, RF Church, C Schneider
Projected Rotation & Closer: Santana, Martinez, Maine, Perez, Hernandez & Wagner
Analysis: The big winners of the off-season were the Mets, with their absolute steal of Johan Santana for a few prospects, none of which will ever measure up to the great Johan (granted this ‘steal’ will cost them a Scrooge McDuck-type fortune over the next 6 years). This move reminds me of when the Sox obtained Schilling prior to the 2004 season – bring in an ace to supplement an already good staff, thus moving each starter down one notch. Suddenly a crafty Pedro Martinez is your number two (even if the egg & mango aficionado won’t admit that he's el numero dos). John Maine & Oliver Perez are the 3rd and 4th starters respectively and El Duque is the 5th starter. This team missed the playoffs by only one game, and needed a monumental collapse to do so. Johan is the ultimate stopper and will make sure prolonged losing streaks, particularly like their September shutdown, are an impossibility. And let’s not forget the Mets trot out 3 of best hitters in the game in Reyes, Beltran & Wright, so the offense isn't anything worry about, and Billy Wagner is still one of the best closers in the game. The pressure is on the Mets because they've set the bar high, but there’s no reason why they shouldn’t lead the National League in wins.

2. Philadelphia Phillies

Prediction: 87-75
Key Additions: Geoff Jenkins, Pedro Feliz, Brad Lidge, Eric Brunlett, Chad Durbin
Key Losses: Michael Bourn, Aaron Rowand, Rod Barajas
Projected Lineup: SS Rollins, CF Victorino, 2B Utley, 1B Howard, LF Burrell, RF Jenkins, 3B Feliz, C Ruiz/Coste
Projected Rotation & Closer: Hamels, Myers, Kendrick, Moyer, Eaton & Lidge
Analysis: The Phillies look good on paper, as they also have 3 of the best hitters in the game in Rollins, Utley & Howard. The difference for them is they just don’t have the pitching depth that other teams have. Brad Lidge is a nice pickup, but how is he going to fair pitching in that little bandbox the Phillies call home (although he will rarely have to face Pujols now that he’s out of the Central, so he has that going for him, which is nice)? Lidge had his knee scoped today and he’ll miss the next 3 to 6 weeks; there's nothing like a knee injury to a baseball player in late February can derail an entire season, as much as Lidge & Phillies management want to play the company line of "it's not a big deal." This also means that Tom Gordon may have to reprise his role as closer (and all I can say is “uh oh”). Hamels is a stud, but can Myers get back into form as a starter – I mean, what happened last year? He was the ace then struggled so he became the closer? That’s just a bizarre chain of events and it makes you wonder about his intestinal & testicular fortitude. And while the Phillies are a loose bunch (as evidence – the amazing “you’ve been traded to Japan for Kobayashi” prank pulled on Kyle Kendrick by Brett Myers and company), their rotation can’t measure up to the elite in the NL, and if you don't have the pitching, you don't have anything.

3. Atlanta Braves

Prediction: 83-79
Key Additions: Tom Glavine, Mark Kotsay
Key Losses: Andruw Jones, Edgar Renteria
Projected Lineup: 2B Johnson, CF Kotsay, 3B Jones, 1B Teixeira, C McCann, RF Francoeur, LF Diaz, SS Escobar
Projected Rotation & Closer: Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, James, Hampton & Soriano
Analysis: Cut from the same mold as the Mets & Phillies, just not as good as either. The losses of Jones & Renteria hurt the offense too much (Jones may have terrible last year, but I’ll take him over Mark Kotsay every day of the week and twice on Sunday). If Chipper can stay healthy, they will be okay, because Teixeira should play out of his mind this year (a great season leads to $150M – hmmm, think he might play well this year?) and would provide great protection for Chipper. Smoltz keeps chugging along, but what does Glavine have left? Why didn’t they try to get Maddux back? I like Soriano as the closer, he has nasty stuff, and mid-season the bullpen will get a bump when they get Mike Gonzalez back. So the Braves will be right there, but just don’t have the horses to get over the hump. But they’re the Braves and it’s been 2 whole years since they won the NL East, so you never know.

4. Florida Marlins

Prediction: 70-92
Key Additions: Cameron Maybin, Dallas McPherson, Andrew Miller
Key Losses: Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Olivo
Projected Lineup: SS Ramirez, 2B Uggla, RF Hermida, LF Willingham, 1B Jacobs, CF Maybin, 3B McPherson, C Rabelo/Treanor
Projected Rotation & Closer: Olson, Mitre, Miller, Hendrickson, Nolasco & Gregg
Analysis: Well, they officially blew it up when they dumped Cabrera & Willis – but got good returns in Maybin and Miller. They’ll be a scrappy team, Hanley Ramirez is very enjoyable to watch, but all in all, they aren’t going to be very good. I’m not sure the team’s payroll exceeds Alex Rodriguez’s salary this year! If the kids grow up fast, they could make some waves. They could be really good in 2010. But it’s 2008. And I just can’t figure out what else to write about this team. Young & Exciting. Young & Terrible. I don’t know. It pisses me off that they’ve won two recent World Series based on this build it up, win for one season and blow it strategy. Although I will tip my hat to their scouting department for making this strategy effective - the fact that they've risen to the top and fallen from grace twice while other similar franchise have been stuck in losing season hell (KC & Pittsburgh, I'm looking at you) is impressive. They should be due for another title and blow up soon. But absolutely not this year.

5. Washington Nationals

Prediction: 70-92
Key Additions: Paul Lo Duca, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Nick Johnson (back from injury)
Key Losses: Brian Schneider, Ryan Church
Projected Lineup: SS Lopez, CF Milledge, 3B Zimmerman, 1B Young, RF Kearns, LF Pena, C Lo Duca, 2B Belliard
Projected Rotation & Closer: Hill, Patterson, Bergmann, Lannan, Chico & Cordero
Analysis: I get bored writing about insignificant teams like the Nationals. Nice pickup in Milledge, hopefully he can put it together and become the player he has the tools to become. Risky pick-up of Dukes, while talented, he’s a legitimate whack-job. I’d rather be a witness giving testimony on Kaiser Soze than be in close proximity with that psycho. They must trade Nick Johnson or Dmitri Young before the season starts, as neither is built to play the outfield and last I checked you can only play one first baseman (Note to the GM – the Angels badly need a productive bat out of their first baseman and have tons of pitching prospects … do the math). Their pitching isn’t that bad but they need a stud starter and some bullpen help. They should be better than the Marlins, but this team has a way of finishing last every year. The best way to sum it up is that I’d bet a thousand dollars there isn’t one Montréal resident that would say, “Je suis si triste que notre magnifique équipe de base-ball a quitté notre ville. Je les manque très beaucoup."