Most owners are left with a void in their roster now that Manny’s been put on ice. Sure they can fill that starting OF slot with a decent enough backup, but what impact does that big fat 0 Manny will put up for the next 50 games have on your roster/standings, and is it worth it?
Unfortunately for me I have him on two teams this year, fortunately for this article it gave me two scenarios to hash out.
Scenario 1
For my first team it’s a basic one year 10 team 5x5 rotisserie format. Here I dropped him immediately, and replaced him with my bench guy Elijah Dukes. My reasoning was simple. I can’t accumulate any stats with him for 50 games. My roster slots are extremely limited, and any numbers produced from an extra player will be better than 0 for at least 50 games. Basically will Dukes + PlayerX be greater than 80 games of Manny. Now to be fair to Manny he’s played exactly 80 games in Dodger blue, so if I’m to do his future value justice I have to put heavy emphasis on those last 80 games. Manny has raked since becoming a Dodger (PED’s might have played a part, but we don’t know to what extent), and for this example we’ll project him for 73 RBI, 23 HR, 58 R, .370 BAVG. I believe this represents the ceiling, and to be sure it’s worth dropping him we have to make sure this ceiling can be breached.
The math behind this is going to be surprisingly easy as my replacement player (Dukes) logged exactly 81 games last year. Now the 50 games Dukes plays for me while Manny serves his suspension are a nonfactor. It’s the 80 games at the end of the year that will be affected. Based on last year’s stats I can project Dukes for 48 R, 13 HR, 44 RBI and a BAVG below .275. This means Player X will have to account for 29 RBI, 10 HR, 10 R, and a hefty increase in BAVG.
This is where it gets tricky. Every team will have specific needs to address or moves they can or can’t make. Now if you just drop Manny for a WW guy you have to be confident you’ll get maximum value out of the pickup. For me this meant going with a reliever. It helped that I had my eye on Juan Cruz from the start of the season, and was looking for a reason to pick him up. I figured he’d be good for great ERA and WHIP for 60+ IP. This would translate into a few wins, 70+ K’s, and maybe a save or two. I figured these numbers coupled with the bonus of stolen bases from Dukes would be more than adequate to cover Manny’s ceiling. I wanted to turn the burden of Manny for 50 games into a boon for my pitching.
As an added bonus Juan Cruz was fortunate to score the closing gig when Soria went down right after I made the swap. Karma swung back in my favor, and the early results of my decision on Manny couldn’t be better. The other way to go would have been to pickup Manny’s replacement in Juan Pierre and really grab a +share in stolen bases as compared to what Manny would have given you. Either method could pay huge dividends in the end, because the production you receive from Player X has to be better than 0! Even a horrible pitching pickup may give you those added K’s to claim the top spot in your league. Who knows things could end up even better if Dukes continues to progress and Manny doesn’t quite hit that ceiling.
The downside to this maneuver is that Dukes is still a very raw talent, and I now have to rely on him for the entire season. Juan Cruz will surely post some good numbers, and I was lucky that he’ll get a few more saves than I projected, but is his contribution to my pitching really going to accumulate enough points to offset the hit to my offense? Then there’s the possibility that upon Manny’s return I could have dropped Dukes and added a similar player to Juan Cruz. Manny could rake and my replacement for Dukes could close the season strong more than accounting for those null 50 games.
Scenario 2
My second team I have Manny in is a 12 Team, 6x6(Hits being the extra cat.), H2H league. Here I determined keeping Manny was in my best interests. These leagues are heavily formatted for success in the second half of the year, and as long as you can add a decent replacement or swap in a bench guy without losing anything pivotal there is really no reason to drop Manny. I was lucky enough to add Sin Choo to my bench earlier in the year, and I’ll ride his bat for the 50 games I’ll have Manny on the bench. Since this league isn’t dependant on accumulated stats I can offset Manny’s loss by managing some of my weaker players week to week. Suddenly Kershaw becomes a bit more expendable, and I’ve been offering a number of three players for two trades throughout the league in hopes of opening another roster spot, while not dealing from a position of weakness by offering Manny in those trades. Trading Manny is always an option, but you’d be selling him low and the longer it takes to get a trade done the more you miss out on countering the void he left, and the more his value increase as T minus 50 decreases.
His ceiling for those 80 games is far to tempting to let go for nothing or give to a competitor on the cheap. There are circumstances where dropping him just might make sense for your team though. Each team will have its own unique circumstances, and this article hopefully helped you at least consider a few options or think of the Manny suspension’s effect on your fantasy roster in a new light.
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Great article and interesting website.