NL Central Preview
It’s time to preview the NL Central, the most unpredictable and up for grabs division in baseball, year in, year out. Any of these mediocre teams could win the division … except for you, Pirates; you aren’t even a mediocre team.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubbies are coming off another disappointing playoff season. After going wire to wire to win the NL Central and holding the best record in entire NL, the Cubs ran into the Los Angeles Mannys and were swept away on October 4th, before most of America even knew the playoffs had started. This year’s postseason won’t even start this season until Oct. 7th! The Cubs made a few tweaks to their roster but for the most part, the same team is coming back. Kevin Gregg replaces Kerry Wood as the closer and Carlos Marmol will remain the 8th inning extraordinaire. The problems the Cubs will run into this year will not be their bullpen though – it’ll be the starting pitching. They’ve gotten in bed with Rich Harden and he’s already getting loose for his first DL trip. Ryan Dempster is coming of a career year and can’t possibly match last year’s numbers. And in bringing in the highly volatile Milton Bradley, to give the offense even more of a boost, they also allowed a lot of crazy into a clubhouse that already has a resident nutbar in Carlos Zambrano, not to mention the ticking time bomb of a manager in Lou Pinella. This much we know: there will be some funny dugout explosions during the season. Despite the potential turmoil, the Cubs still have Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez to pace the offense. Thus, the Cubs are the safe pick to win the division.
Rotation: Big Z, Harden, Dempster, Lilly, Marshall
Key Relievers: Gregg, Marmol, Samardzija
Lineup: Soriano, LF; Theriot, SS; Lee, 1B; Ramirez, 3B; Bradley/Fukudome, RF; Soto, C; Johnson/Gathright CF; Fontenot/Miles, 2B
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew may have mortgaged the future for last year’s stretch run to make the playoffs. Trading a potential big bat in Matt LaPorta for CC Sabathia may have made them a contender, but they were promptly beaten by the Phillies and now Sabathia is gone. They finally got a healthy season from Ben Sheets for the first time in what felt like forever, only for him to be hurt right at the end of the season, unavailable for the playoffs and now he’s an unsigned free agent – unsigned because he probably will need surgery, because after all, he’s Ben Sheets. They’re banking on young guns Gallardo and Parra to replace some of that one-two punch they had. They might also be right back to where they were a few years ago with a shaky bullpen and it’s not going to help that aging Trevor Hoffman is starting the season on the DL. But the Brewers have relied on a powerful offense lately and will continue to do so, with super-masher Ryan Braun in the middle. And as long as Corey Hart gets the memo that the season is 162 games long, they should be ready. And look out for super prospect Mat Gamel’s eventual call-up to replace the utterly useless Bill Hall at 3B (Hall will be the subject of my next book, called “The Curios Case of Bill Hall,” in which I will explore how a career could peak and decline ever so quickly and how he made it to the major leagues without ever owning a glove growing up – or so it would appear). Look for a regression year for the Brewers, but they are the “if everything goes right for us” pick to win the division.
Rotation: Gallardo, Bush, Suppan, Looper, Parra
Key Relievers: Hoffman (DL), Villanueva, Julio
Lineup: Weeks, 2B; Hardy, SS; Braun, LF; Fielder, 1B; Hart, RF; Cameron, CF; Hall, 3B; Kendall, C
Houston Astros
Houston will try to avoid another slow start to try to get back to the playoffs for the first time since they were swept in the World Series by the White Sox. How did Houston make it the NLCS Game 7 two years in a row? Starting pitching! Granted it was with Oswalt and a roided up Clemens and a roided up Pettitte, but good starting pitching got them there. How have they not been able to get another solid starter to go with Oswalt? They’re in the 4th biggest city in the US; they’re in a tax-free state; and they have no cold weather. How could they not draw a big-name pitcher there?!? Shame on the management. Wandy Rodriguez is decent, but he should never be your No. 2. Although the Astros have a surprisingly frisky lineup led by Berkman (who quietly puts up numbers every year that put him in top-5 all-around hitters in all of baseball) and Carlos Lee, and it should keep them above .500 as it did last year. The addition of Pudge Rodriguez gives them a solid defensive catcher who can still hit – for average. Whatever they get from him and from fellow former steroid abuser Miguel Tejada will determine their fate, thus making the Astros the “maybe if we have enough B-12 around and if we pick up a solid starting pitcher at the trade deadline” pick to win the division.
Rotation: Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Hampton, Moehler, Russ Ortiz
Key Relievers: Valverde, Geary, Brocail, Hawkins
Lineup: Bourn, CF; Matsui, 2B; Berkman, 1B; Lee, LF; Tejada, SS; Pence, RF; Blum/Keppinger 3B; Pudge C
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals look to build around the game’s premier player to get back to the playoffs. Writing about the Cardinals is like writing about the Astros – maybe I should just copy and paste and change some of the names. It’s been a few years since they made the playoffs, they don’t have the starting pitching they used to, their end of their rotation looks terrible and their offense is built around a super-duper hitting first baseman (although in this case, it’s the Man himself, Mr. Pujols). These teams are mirror images of each other and it’s impressive too since they met in the NLCS two consecutive years and have each regressed at the same pace. The Cardinals got lucky though – they squeaked into the playoffs with the worst record for a playoff team ever and got hot to win a World Series. Well, if Ryan Ludwick proves last year was no fluke and Rich Ankiel can keep slugging for an entire season, they might not even miss Troy Glaus’ big presence in the lineup (although if anyone is surprised by a DL trip for Glaus, then I have some beanstock beans I want to sell you). The long and short of it is of course, why do teams ever pitch to Pujols? And thus it makes the Cardinals the “more times Albert gets up with a game on the line, the better” pick to win the division.
Rotation: Wainwright, Carpenter, Pineiro, Lohse, Wellemeyer
Key Relievers: Motte, Franklin
Lineup: Schumaker, 2B; Greene, SS; Pujols, 1B; Ludwick, RF; Ankiel, CF; Molina, C; Rasmus, LF; Freese, 3B
Cincinnati Reds
Here’s an intriguing team. In fact, if I were a Reds fan, I’d be more optimistic about this season than any season since Barry Larkin hung them up (and probably a few seasons before that). It’s okay, Reds fans, the horribly disappointing Ken Griffey Jr. Era is over – who would have thunk it when the Reds signed the hometown Kid, that it would still be Senior who would be the more memorable player. But back to this season: With small market teams, it takes everything lining up right in the same year and this might (emphasis on might) be that year for the Reds. Young studs Jay Bruce and Joey Votto seem like they’re on the verge of stardom and could carry the offense, along with stat-sheet stuffer Brandon Phillips. But the Reds have assembled what appears to be the best pitching staff in the NL Central. Young Dominicans Volquez and Cueto should be the best two starters, and if they get a bounce back year from Harang, they’ll have three legit starters to go with Arroyo and Owings, average starters who both bring a good bat with them when the start (especially true of Owings – in fact, if I were an AL team, he’d be the perfect No. 5 starter – you could DH the 4 games he doesn’t start!). Coupled with a pretty good defense, the Reds could make a run this year. Of course, don’t curse me out if they start out 5-20 in April. But I can proudly state that the Reds are the official “Sports Hubris Dark Horse” pick to win the division.
Rotation: Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, Owings
Key Relievers: Cordero, Weathers, Rhodes, Bray
Lineup: Tavarez, CF; Bruce, RF; Phillips, 2B; Votto, 1B; Encarnacion, 3B; Hernandez, C; Dickerson, LF; Gonzalez, SS
Pittsburgh Pirates
Nate McLouth and Ryan Doumit are a nice duo, just expect this season and about half of next before they’re shipped off to a contender at the trading deadline for a bunch of prospects that probably won’t ever pan out. The LaRoche brothers make the Drew brothers look like Hall-of-Famers – there’s a reason why they are both stuck in the baseball purgatory that is Pittsburgh. The rotation that has included Duke and Snell the past few years continues to employ Duke and Snell (great baseball names, not great baseball players). There’s just not much to write about these guys – it’s the same old, same old in Pittsburgh. Ever since Barry Bonds left the squad in the early ‘90s, the Pirates franchise has floundered. Be thankful for the Steelers and the Penguins, Pittsburgh sports fans, as the playoffs are around the corner for Sid the Kid and his merry band and the most exciting moment of April will probably be hearing the Steelers referred to as the ‘Super Bowl Champions’ over and over during the NFL Draft.
Rotation: Maholm, Duke, Snell, Ohlendorf, Karstens
Key Relievers: Capps, Grabow
Lineup: Morgan, LF; Sanchez, 2B; McLouth, CF; Doumit, C; LaRoche, 1B, LaRoche, 3B; Moss, RF; Wilson, SS
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