I'm feeling saucy today, so I'm posting my 2nd helping of predictions today. Time to move on to the Senior Circuit, also known as the National League, where the pitchers hit and the teams are generally not as good as their American counterparts. Here's my look at the NL East:
1. New York Mets
Prediction: 92-70
Key Additions: Johan Santana, Brian Schneider, Ryan Church
Key Losses: Tom Glavine, Paul Lo Duca, Shawn Green, Jeff Conine
Projected Lineup: SS Reyes, 2B Castillo, CF Beltran, 3B Wright, 1B Delgado, LF Alou, RF Church, C Schneider
Projected Rotation & Closer: Santana, Martinez, Maine, Perez, Hernandez & Wagner
Analysis: The big winners of the off-season were the Mets, with their absolute steal of Johan Santana for a few prospects, none of which will ever measure up to the great Johan (granted this ‘steal’ will cost them a Scrooge McDuck-type fortune over the next 6 years). This move reminds me of when the Sox obtained Schilling prior to the 2004 season – bring in an ace to supplement an already good staff, thus moving each starter down one notch. Suddenly a crafty Pedro Martinez is your number two (even if the egg & mango aficionado won’t admit that he's el numero dos). John Maine & Oliver Perez are the 3rd and 4th starters respectively and El Duque is the 5th starter. This team missed the playoffs by only one game, and needed a monumental collapse to do so. Johan is the ultimate stopper and will make sure prolonged losing streaks, particularly like their September shutdown, are an impossibility. And let’s not forget the Mets trot out 3 of best hitters in the game in Reyes, Beltran & Wright, so the offense isn't anything worry about, and Billy Wagner is still one of the best closers in the game. The pressure is on the Mets because they've set the bar high, but there’s no reason why they shouldn’t lead the National League in wins.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: 87-75
Key Additions: Geoff Jenkins, Pedro Feliz, Brad Lidge, Eric Brunlett, Chad Durbin
Key Losses: Michael Bourn, Aaron Rowand, Rod Barajas
Projected Lineup: SS Rollins, CF Victorino, 2B Utley, 1B Howard, LF Burrell, RF Jenkins, 3B Feliz, C Ruiz/Coste
Projected Rotation & Closer: Hamels, Myers, Kendrick, Moyer, Eaton & Lidge
Analysis: The Phillies look good on paper, as they also have 3 of the best hitters in the game in Rollins, Utley & Howard. The difference for them is they just don’t have the pitching depth that other teams have. Brad Lidge is a nice pickup, but how is he going to fair pitching in that little bandbox the Phillies call home (although he will rarely have to face Pujols now that he’s out of the Central, so he has that going for him, which is nice)? Lidge had his knee scoped today and he’ll miss the next 3 to 6 weeks; there's nothing like a knee injury to a baseball player in late February can derail an entire season, as much as Lidge & Phillies management want to play the company line of "it's not a big deal." This also means that Tom Gordon may have to reprise his role as closer (and all I can say is “uh oh”). Hamels is a stud, but can Myers get back into form as a starter – I mean, what happened last year? He was the ace then struggled so he became the closer? That’s just a bizarre chain of events and it makes you wonder about his intestinal & testicular fortitude. And while the Phillies are a loose bunch (as evidence – the amazing “you’ve been traded to Japan for Kobayashi” prank pulled on Kyle Kendrick by Brett Myers and company), their rotation can’t measure up to the elite in the NL, and if you don't have the pitching, you don't have anything.
3. Atlanta Braves
Prediction: 83-79
Key Additions: Tom Glavine, Mark Kotsay
Key Losses: Andruw Jones, Edgar Renteria
Projected Lineup: 2B Johnson, CF Kotsay, 3B Jones, 1B Teixeira, C McCann, RF Francoeur, LF Diaz, SS Escobar
Projected Rotation & Closer: Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, James, Hampton & Soriano
Analysis: Cut from the same mold as the Mets & Phillies, just not as good as either. The losses of Jones & Renteria hurt the offense too much (Jones may have terrible last year, but I’ll take him over Mark Kotsay every day of the week and twice on Sunday). If Chipper can stay healthy, they will be okay, because Teixeira should play out of his mind this year (a great season leads to $150M – hmmm, think he might play well this year?) and would provide great protection for Chipper. Smoltz keeps chugging along, but what does Glavine have left? Why didn’t they try to get Maddux back? I like Soriano as the closer, he has nasty stuff, and mid-season the bullpen will get a bump when they get Mike Gonzalez back. So the Braves will be right there, but just don’t have the horses to get over the hump. But they’re the Braves and it’s been 2 whole years since they won the NL East, so you never know.
4. Florida Marlins
Prediction: 70-92
Key Additions: Cameron Maybin, Dallas McPherson, Andrew Miller
Key Losses: Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Olivo
Projected Lineup: SS Ramirez, 2B Uggla, RF Hermida, LF Willingham, 1B Jacobs, CF Maybin, 3B McPherson, C Rabelo/Treanor
Projected Rotation & Closer: Olson, Mitre, Miller, Hendrickson, Nolasco & Gregg
Analysis: Well, they officially blew it up when they dumped Cabrera & Willis – but got good returns in Maybin and Miller. They’ll be a scrappy team, Hanley Ramirez is very enjoyable to watch, but all in all, they aren’t going to be very good. I’m not sure the team’s payroll exceeds Alex Rodriguez’s salary this year! If the kids grow up fast, they could make some waves. They could be really good in 2010. But it’s 2008. And I just can’t figure out what else to write about this team. Young & Exciting. Young & Terrible. I don’t know. It pisses me off that they’ve won two recent World Series based on this build it up, win for one season and blow it strategy. Although I will tip my hat to their scouting department for making this strategy effective - the fact that they've risen to the top and fallen from grace twice while other similar franchise have been stuck in losing season hell (KC & Pittsburgh, I'm looking at you) is impressive. They should be due for another title and blow up soon. But absolutely not this year.
5. Washington Nationals
Prediction: 70-92
Key Additions: Paul Lo Duca, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Nick Johnson (back from injury)
Key Losses: Brian Schneider, Ryan Church
Projected Lineup: SS Lopez, CF Milledge, 3B Zimmerman, 1B Young, RF Kearns, LF Pena, C Lo Duca, 2B Belliard
Projected Rotation & Closer: Hill, Patterson, Bergmann, Lannan, Chico & Cordero
Analysis: I get bored writing about insignificant teams like the Nationals. Nice pickup in Milledge, hopefully he can put it together and become the player he has the tools to become. Risky pick-up of Dukes, while talented, he’s a legitimate whack-job. I’d rather be a witness giving testimony on Kaiser Soze than be in close proximity with that psycho. They must trade Nick Johnson or Dmitri Young before the season starts, as neither is built to play the outfield and last I checked you can only play one first baseman (Note to the GM – the Angels badly need a productive bat out of their first baseman and have tons of pitching prospects … do the math). Their pitching isn’t that bad but they need a stud starter and some bullpen help. They should be better than the Marlins, but this team has a way of finishing last every year. The best way to sum it up is that I’d bet a thousand dollars there isn’t one Montréal resident that would say, “Je suis si triste que notre magnifique équipe de base-ball a quitté notre ville. Je les manque très beaucoup."
American League 2008
2008 - AL East Predictions
2008 - AL Central Predictions
2008 - AL West Predictions
National League 2008
2008 - NL East Predictions
2008 - NL Central Predictions
2008 - NL West Predictions
2008 Playoffs
2008 MLB Playoff Predictions
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Someone should tell Peter Gammons that he has a new writer. Your a good writer of blogs like this. I just wish other people could read them. All you readers get a digg account and digg the article.
1.) Braves
Whaaaaaaat? The Mets and Phills rely too heavily upon the fragile arm/shoulder/cuffs/psyche of Pedro, Perez, Hamels, and Myers. Their spectacular lineups consist of 3 all-stars 4 mediocre to sub-par hitters and one oft humorous pitcher. Don't get me wrong I can easily make a case for each team winning the division, but the Braves were just 5 games out last season, and have a pentient for pennants. I believe the rotation is as solid as they come, and that lineup will be bolstered by 3 potential all-stars of their own. The Braves have a chip on their shoulder as evident by Chipper's latest remarks on the Beltran vs. Rollins trash talk, and will battle all season. This is the playoff pick that all the experts will miss.
W: 85-90
2.) Phillies
This team relies less on their pitching than any other playoff hopefull. They play in a hitters park, and the strategy is simple; outmash the opponent , and hope for a pitching gem once in while. Hamels and Myers are a great one two punch, but stability is a big issue, and the back end of the rotation offers no relief. Speaking of relief...Tom Gordon will start as closer due to Brad Lidge's injury. This in itself is not a problem as Gordon is a solid first half contributor. He'll fade miserably in the second half though, so if Lidge's mental or physical ability renders him obsolete, the Phillies have major bullpen issues.
W: 85-90
3.) Mets
Johan was a neccesity. Pelfrey and Maine didn't quite pan out like the Mets were hoping, and with Pedro's inconsistency they were in dire straits for an Ace pitcher. On paper this is the team to beat in the NL, but if you look a bit closer....Pedro and Alou will not play a full season, Oliver Perez is Charlie Sheen's Wild Thing sans glasses, El Duque throws a floater that makes the Rookie of the Year post arm miracle look like an all-star, and Delgado is a real life Pedro Cerano with a full fledged Jobu hex going for him. This team has a few too many smoke enshrouded mirrors for my liking. If the paper reads like it's supposed to pencil them in for the playoffs, but if Jobu gets his hands on them prepare for massive dissapointment.
W: 85-90
4.) Washington
The offense is a bit improved, so I'd expect them to steal a few games against the weak pitching in the NL. Milledge and Dukes have massive ego's, and if it causes disruption in the clubhouse this team will be perennial losers. Hopefully the first year of a few fresh faces will inspire the team, and they'll be able to cause problems down the stretch in this heated division.
W: 73-78
5.) Marlins
The key losses cemented their doom this season. I'm not sure this is the gritty team of a few years ago either. Hanley isn't going to improve without Cabrera, and you can only expect so much from Hermida. The Marlins did make headway towards a new stadium, and I think that will be the beginning of great things for the franchise. Hopefully the young pitching that was injured last year can stay healthy and have continued success. How well Girardi fare's this season in NY, should also shed light on the management, and their assessment of the teams future.
W: 64-69
I say the Mets reach 100+ wins this year. Santanna will dominate his first year winning 22 games and the Cy Young, Pedro will have his one last heroic year with 16 wins and a 3.75 ERA, Maine and Perez only get better with the addition of Santanna and the return of Pedro, Reyes and Wright will score 240 combined runs while taking the East by 5 games. With the way things fell apart in Queens last year I think this is the year things just fall their way.
WOW... who wrote this prediction? I would REALLY like to put some money on this.
I don't know who the best team in the NL East is, but I will tell you this much... it's between the Mets and the Braves. Yes, the Braves, not the Phillies.
Renteria was a loss, yes... but have you seen that kid, Escobar (the Braves new SS), play? Heard on ESPN the other day that Bobby Cox is absolutely convinced this kid is going to be a star.
As for Andruw Jones... he was not a loss offensively. I saw a good number of Braves games last year, and I can tell you that for much of the season, he was the only easy out in their lineup. Sure, he drove in a lot of runs, but it's commensurate to an NBA player scoring 25 points, but taking 40-plus shots to get those point. The top of the Braves lineup led the league in OBP for much of the year. Andruw was their MVP in 2006, but last year, he was a one-man rally-killer at the plate (as his .200-something average would indicate).
Also, did you forget that they will now have Mark Teixeira in the lineup for a full season? Along with Chipper, Francoeur, McCann (who quietly, is one of the best young lefty hitters in the league), and two kids who can really swing the bat in Kelly Johnson and Y.Escobar.
The Braves will be near the top in runs scored again this year. I'll put money on it.
The Braves also posted the 2nd best bullpen ERA in the league last year, and should be getting Mike Gonzalez back before the all-star break.
As for the rotation. Many doubt the impact of adding Glavine to this rotation, but consider this... only 8 starts in baseball had more quality starts than Glavine last year. Two of them are in a Braves uniform (Hudson and Smoltz). None of them wear a Mets or Phillies uni (not even Santana). That means that of the top-9 MLB startes in quality starts last year, 3 of them are in the Braves rotation. And Jair Jurrjens (the Braves new 5th starter, who they got in the Tigers-Renteria deal) looks like he's going to be a good one.
Hampton's comeback is looking good so far. Regardless of what happens with him, the Braves are going to win 90 games, and they are GOING to be in this race. If Hampton makes more than 25 starts, the Braves will win this thing.
hahah your an idiot all your predictions are wrong the Phillies whooped the mets this year and there goin to the world series!