MLB 2008 Predictions Part 1 of 7 - AL EAST

Over the next few weeks, I'll be offering my preview and predictions for the upcoming season of Major League Baseball. This will be part 1 of a 7 part preview, the first 6 parts being each division's preview followed by my playoff predictions. So, on to the American League East Preview:

1. Boston Red Sox
Prediction: 97-65
Key Additions: Sean Casey
Key Losses: Eric Gagne, Curt Schilling (injured)
Projected Lineup: 2B Pedroia, 1B Youkilis, DH Ortiz, LF Ramirez, 3B Lowell, RF Drew, CF Ellsbury, C Varitek, SS Lugo
Projected Rotation & Closer: Beckett, Matzusaka, Wakefield, Lester, Tavarez/Buchholz & Papelbon
Analysis: The defending World Champions (boy, do I enjoy writing that) had their quietest off-season since lord-knows-when. Basically, the Sox are playing with house money and are saying “Let It Ride!” this year. They are banking on their veterans to continue to play at a level that Sox fans are accustomed to seeing them play and the youngsters to continue to improve. The stories of Manny working out hard this off-season could lead to a huge contract year for him. The main spring training question will be whether Jacoby Ellsbury will become the everyday CF or if Coco Crisp can maintain it (or what he can be traded for). The addition of Sean Casey looks to be an upgrade over Eric Hinske as the back-up corner infielder (Youkilis plays 3rd when Lowell needs a day off). Eric Gagne’s departure is the classic “addition by subtraction” transaction, and the bullpen should remain strong this year. Curt Schilling’s questionable mid-season return casts a slight doubt on the starting rotation. Granted they still have a strong and solid rotation, but a wise man once said, “you can never have too much pitching” and hopefully Schilling’s injury won’t affect the Sox too much. Of course, this homer picks the Sox to defend their AL East crown.

2. New York Yankees

Prediction: 95-67 (wild card)
Key Additions: Morgan Ensberg, LaTroy Hawkins
Key Losses: Roger Clemens
Projected Lineup: DH Damon, SS Jeter, RF Abreu, 3B Rodriguez, LF Matsui, C Posada, 1B Giambi, 2B Cano, CF Cabrera
Projected Rotation & Closer: Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Mussina, Kennedy/Igawa & Rivera (with Chamberlain a 2nd half starter)
Analysis: The Evil Empire also had a quiet off-season, at least in terms of baseball transactions. Obviously Hank Steinbrenner has been making like his father and running is mouth about everything and anything and Andy Pettitte has been in the news, linked to HGH use and to the Roger Clemens “did he or didn’t he use” drama that reached Congress. But it terms of the team, the Yankees are using the same approach as the Red Sox – letting the young kids have a shot to supplement a core of solid, expensive veterans. The re-signed A-Rod, bidding outrageously against themselves after swearing he’d never be a Yankee again when he opted out of his contract. They brought back ageless wonders Posada and Rivera. Giambi might be an impact in the offense again, but even if he isn’t, this is, as usual, one hell of an offense. The Yankees wear down pitching with their patient offensive approach. But pitching is what wins in the long run, and while the offense can mash their way into the postseason, the Yankees are relying on a lot of youngsters to grow up fast and to throw more innings than they ever have. So, much like the Sox, they will trot out a similar lineup and rotation as they did last year, when it was good for 2nd in the AL East and the Wild Card. And I think it will be good for 2nd in the AL East and the Wild Card again.

3. Toronto Blue Jays

Prediction: 84-78
Key Additions: Scott Rolen, David Eckstein
Key Losses: Troy Glaus
Project Lineup: SS Eckstein, RF Rios, CF Wells, DH Thomas, 3B Rolen, 1B Overbay, 2B Hill, C Barajas/Zaun, LF Johnson/Lind
Project Rotation: Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, Marcum, Chacin/Litsch & Accardo/Ryan
Analysis: The Blue Jays are the thorn in the Sox and Yanks sides, and why not bring in the scrappiest, most annoying (as an opponent) player in baseball – little David Eckstein. I’m sure he will be a headache for both the Sox and Yankees at least a couple times each this year (you know, one of those 4-hit nights were each one is slapped and either bloops over an infielder or sneaks through one of the infield gaps). They have a formidable lineup that combines power and speed very well, but can Vernon Wells bounce back from a subpar 2007 season? The Glaus for Rolen trade was a traditional “we each have a guy that needs a chance of scenary” trade where neither the Cards nor Jays got screwed or benefitted much from the move. The Jays lost a little power but gained a little average, but as always with them, it comes down to health – the Jays have been knocking on the door but seem to get derailed by injuries the past few years. Their rotation is solid, with Halladay and contract year Burnett headlining it. The closer situation is interesting, with BJ Ryan coming back from injury but shouldn’t that be Jeremy Accardo’s job to lose? And of course, the main problem the Blue Jays have every year is health – so if they can stay healthy, they could threaten the 1-2 in this division. But expecting anything over 3rd from them is high expectations.

4. Tampa Bay Rays

Prediction: 76-86
Key Additions: Matt Garza, Cliff Floyd, Jason Bartlett, Troy Percival
Key Losses: Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, Elijah Dukes
Projected Lineup: LF Crawford, 2B Iwamura, CF Upton, 1B Pena, DH Floyd, 3B Longoria, RF Baldelli/Gomes, C Navarro, SS Bartlett
Projected Rotation: Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Jackson, Sonnanstine & Reyes/Percival
Analysis: The Rays appear to be sending out their best team since their inception. Crawford & Upton give them two fantastic speed guys that can hit for some power. Carlos Pena will try to recapture last year’s magic and really get paid in 2009. Evan Longoria is has the potential to be “this year’s Ryan Braun,” a term that you’ve probably read 100 times and will read 100 more times before the season starts. Whether it’s true or not is yet to be seen. The Rays (as in Sun rays, not is in we dropped the “Devil” and we’re still water creatures) have a formidable offense. The difference between this season’s Rays and the past products is that this year’s Rays have some pitching. Obviously Kazmir is their ace, and James Shields is coming off a very good season. They obtained Matt Garza, who has the stuff to be an ace, from Minnesota for the talented but troubled Delmon Young (although they also traded Elijah Dukes away, who took the term “troubled” to a new level, so Delmon never looked that bad, even when he threw his bat at an umpire two years ago in a minor league game). So the Rays have 3 potentially great starters this year, and another talent in the minors that might make an appearance in former No. 1 pick David Price. They brought in Percival to help the bullpen, which would have been a great move if it were ten years ago, and they still have Al Reyes to battle over the closer spot. But the Achilles’ heel will be getting to the closer, as the rest of their bullpen looks poor. But I see this Tampa ball club having their best season ever. Unfortunately, they’re not going to get to that elusive 80-win plateau, and overrated manager Joe Madden will finally be exposed as overrated.

5. Baltimore Orioles

Prediction: 57-105
Key Additions: Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Luke Scott
Key Losses: Erik Bedard, Miguel Tejada
Projected Lineup: 2B Roberts, 3B Mora, RF Markakis, 1B Millar, DH Huff, C Hernandez, LF Scott, CF Jones, SS Hernandez/Bynum
Projected Rotation & Closer: Cabrera, Loewen, Guthrie, Olson, Patton & Sherrill/Ray
Analysis: They have entered into a full-fledged rebuilding mode. They traded away ace Erik Bedard for stud prospect Adam Jones and solid set-up man George Sherrill. They traded Miguel Tejada away for Luke Scott and a prospect pu pu platter. They might trade Brian Roberts away before the season begins. It’s clear that the Orioles are finally facing the music that they are not a couple players away from competing with the Sox and the Yanks and are going back to square one. I commend them for taking this approach, and it should pay off for them in 2 to 3 years, if some of these newly acquired prospects pan out. But this year, it will be painful to watch a talent like Nick Markakis wasting away. Their rotation, and for that matter their entire pitching staff, might be the worst in baseball. Their lineup has bright spots, but when Millar and Huff are your biggest power threats, you’re in for a long year. Luis Hernandez & Freddy Bynum should have the least talked about position battle in baseball history. I’m shocked AND awed if they win 60 games this year.

Tune in tomorrow for the AL Central ...
American League 2008

2008 - AL East Predictions

2008 - AL Central Predictions

2008 - AL West Predictions

National League 2008

2008 - NL East Predictions

2008 - NL Central Predictions

2008 - NL West Predictions

2008 Playoffs

2008 MLB Playoff Predictions

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