You better be good you better not cry because Santana Claus is coming to town! He knows when you’ve been sleeping (Twins!!). He knows when you’re awake (Sox and Yanks), so you better be good for goodness sake!
Santana wants out of the Twin Cities and if you’ll throw together a nice parting gift to the Twins, you could wind up with one of the greatest lefties of all time, while your nemesis is left with nothing but a stocking full of coal this Christmas.
There are plenty of suitors for Johan, but only two can afford to bet the farm on him and throw hundreds of millions at him at the same time. The two juggernauts of baseball---The Sox and The Yanks. The other main competitors are the Dodgers, Angels, Tigers, and Mets. The Dodgers aren’t a good enough team right now for Johan to want to go there, the Angels need a big bat more than a pitcher, the Mets don’t have the right pieces to send to the Twins without losing a superstar of their own, and forget the Tigers the Twins don’t want to trade inside their division.
While the Sox/Yanks trade rumors whirl through ESPN, let’s look at it from another angle…the correct one. Minnesota is sitting pretty right now; they have Johan this year, and are a competitive ball club. They can easily hold onto him until the All-Star Break. Why all the rumors then? Simple they want the Sox or Yanks or any team to overpay drastically.
Everyone credits the Sox or the Yanks with driving up the price so other teams or each other can’t get a hold of him. The real credit should go to the Twins, they’re secretly hoping the price becomes so outrageous that they will happily accept, but if it doesn’t no big deal they have Johan, a chance at the playoffs, and one hell of a bargaining chip at the trade deadline.
What the twins need is a CF and at least two SP in return for Johan. It’s also exactly what both the Sox and Yanks have to offer. Let’s dissect each team’s top pieces to offer.
CF
Melky NYY
Not as flashy with the glove as his Sox counterpart, but his arm is powerful and accurate. He’s also a proven hitter, and should put together a few great years at the plate, and perhaps an all-star birth if he could get out of the shadows of the Yankee stars.
Ellsbury BOS
Star potential in every aspect of the game. Jacoby is fast and the only thing flashier than the smile he gives the ladies is the leather he displays on the field. His impact in the Big Leagues was short but noticeable.
Both these teams treasure these two young CF’s, but they also have veteran serviceable CF’s under contract…Damon and Crisp.
SP
Clay Buchholz BOS
Did you see that no-no Clay threw? The Twins sure did, and young Clay sports a ridiculous change-up that has scouts everywhere drooling.
Joba Chamberlain NYY
The Twins play in a dome, so flying soldier ants shouldn’t be an issue, and everyone already knows he’s a sure fire closer, but he projects as a great SP. This is a can’t miss player for the Twins as a Joe Nathan replacement will also be needed.
Jon Lester BOS
He’s a young lefty that could take away some of the sting felt by Johan’s absence. Probably nothing more than a 4th or 5th starter he’s a feel good story and a decent piece to push a trade through.
Philip Hughes NYY
A highly touted Yankee prospect, and at the age of 21 has already showcased his ability to perform at the major league level as he went 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA in 29.2 innings in September.
The Twins would like a combination of two out of the 3 from both teams, which to me is a fair deal except the winner of Johan has to pony up $200 mill +….
As I look at it it’ll be very hard to pull off a deal without trading too many players and paying too much. I foresee a stalemate in which the Twins hold onto him until the trade deadline. The problem with this is if the Yankee pitchers, who are projected to start, succeed it raises the Yankees willingness to trade them. Johan should be fine, but an injury of any kind leaves the Twins with nothing to show for him except a few draft picks.
Now for a few opinions and predictions
Yankees Trades
What the Twins want:
Hughes, Cano, Melky, Kennedy
What the Yankees would like to trade:
Ian Kennedy, and a few farm guys.
What I think is fair:
Melky, Kennedy, Humberto Sanchez, Jose Tabata
What will happen if anything:
Hughes , Melky, Rasner, Tabata
Red Sox Trades
What the Twins want:
Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lester, AAA player
What the Sox would like to trade:
Coco, Lester and a few farm guys
What I think is fair:
Buchholz, Lester, Coco, AAA player
What will happen if anything:
Lester, Coco and the picking of the farm outside of Buccholz and Ellsbury.
What I think would be the best trade possible between these teams:
Dustin Pedroia, Coco, Lester, and the pick of the farm.
It’s a win for the Sox and a sort of win for the Twins. The Sox upgrade from a 5th starter to the ace of the AL, lose nothing in center, and just have to find a serviceable 2nd basemen, much easier than finding another Ace.
The twins get younger cheap effective players. They address two holes in their lineup in center and 2b, and get a gutsy pitcher who can eat up some innings. You hate to be the team getting the short end of the stick like the Twins in this case, but they dug their own hole by letting the world know Johan wasn’t getting resigned, and unless the Yankees overpay the Sox have the right pieces to get a deal done.
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You had a good point about the Twins holding back until the trading deadline (to see if they can compete with him this year). Most recent news has cropped up that Santana will only waive his no-trade clause for an off-season trade, and if he begins the year on the Twins, then that's where he'll stay. Santana has handcuffed the Twins with that proclaimation in taking away option number 3, so they are left with trade him now or keep him. But this isn't something you could have known when you posted.
The only thing I don't like about your article is your "What I think is fair" trades, where you wishful Yankee thinking shines through. Essentially if you think that each of those trades are fair, you would place equal value to those packages, and sorry, but Melky, Kennedy, Sanchez & Tabata are worth FAR less than Buchholz, Lester, Coco & AAA player (likely Masterson, Bowden or Lowrie) in the baseball world. Come on, the whole blog entry is great except that.
I wouldn't have capitalized far if I were you...Kennedy is projecting to be better than Lester (who in my opinion is vastly overrated) Coco is nothing more than bench player for the Sox right now and Buchholz is whom the package is built around. Out of all the players named in the above I believe Melky to be worth the most...doesn't matter though looks like if anything does get done between the sox and twins it's going to be my what happens if anything scenario.